Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. Trump and three generic third-party candidates. Louisiana Governor - Open Primary WAFB-TV/Mason-Dixon Landry 40, Wilson 24, Waguespack 9, Lundy 4, Schroeder 3, Hewitt 2, Nelson Landry +16 Louisiana Governor Runoff Election - Landry vs. 1380 RV. This isn’t a popularity contest™. 7-10. Overall, Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate are 68-in-100, according to the Deluxe version of our forecast. 43. 21, 2023 leader Nov. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. FiveThirtyEight is tracking the 2022 midterm races for U. 7. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. No bachelor’s. Download the data. Biden. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public. The generic ballot average has been relatively stable in 2020, but recent history suggests it could still move and make for a competitive battle for control of the House as well as the White House. Democrats +2. Democrats lose generic ballot lead: Congressional Democrats have lost their advantage over congressional Republicans on the generic ballot, with likely voters now evenly split — 46% to 46% — on the question. 47%. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Download the data. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. S. 5Download the data. From 2010 to 2022, an average of 161 statewide ballot measures—53 initiated measures and 108 referred measures—appeared on ballots in even-numbered years. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Thanks for joining us!Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 78%. Nov. 4% Democrat 45. Download. Murray. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. A 9-point loss in the House popular vote would translate into a projected 65-seat loss. 6 percent). Download the data. That’s an 18 percentage. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans Sep 13, 2023. 2020 Generic Congressional Vote. A Look At The Generic Ballot. A handful of recent polls asking likely voters in Virginia if they plan to vote for a Democrat or Republican in the upcoming General Assembly election (much like generic ballot surveys for U. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Split Ticket’s calculations showed an R+1. 11, 2023. The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. Download the data. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. Sixty-two percent of generic-ballot undecideds disapprove. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 300 LV. And overall, the latest average from 538 gives the Republicans a very narrow . Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Ahead of the U. Democrats. Democrats Republicans; Likely: Leans: Toss up: Likely: Leans: Toss up: Date State Prev ious Status New Status Dems Toss Ups GOP Pick-Up Range Avg Gain Average Gain; 11/6: NY19 NY19: Leans GOPMarch 28-April 5. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. How this works. The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. KEY. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. An initiated measure is a proposed law that people collect signatures for to put on the ballot. 2006: D+9. Download the data. 2 percent in an average of all. But as of this week, after tying. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Republicans (R) +2. A recent CBS News/YouGov survey has Democrats running 2 percentage points behind Republicans in the generic congressional ballot — a measure closely tied to a party’s performance in the midterms. Trump. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. -- A judge has struck down an effort to enshrine reproductive rights, including abortion, in Nevada’s constitution, as abortion rights. 538 might feel like a left leaning organization but tbh in my opinion reality has a liberal bias. On Wednesday morning, another generic ballot poll, from Selzer & Co. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Filter by poll type or state. 2-point advantage in the national generic ballot, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. Download. Once upon a time, people really did vote for person over party. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls find Republicans down ballot will perform better if Florida Gov. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. ”. 9 points on the actual house popular vote in Nov, a 4. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research. Of those: The Lite forecast called the winner correctly in 482 of 506. 46%. In October 2014, the generic ballot stood here: Fox: D 45%, R 43% (D+2) CNN: D 49%, R 43% (D+6) (NPR’s last poll of registered voters. Download. Across the six. 0 percent to 42. Download. 1 points. News. Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 2 All six of those polling firms have shown a shift toward Democrats. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in. The last key point is that the generic ballot can be somewhat misleading when it comes to the eventual outcomes — because history shows Democrats need to be leading on that measure to keep their. The forecast for the 2024 presidential election appears in the chart. Kennedy Harvard-Harris Trump 44, Biden 36, Kennedy 21 Trump +8 General Election. Generic ballot. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Republicans (R) +2. 748. ABC’s Jonathan Karl and 538 blogger Nate Silver -- noted that the recent polls about Obama’s approval rating and the generic ballot. That’s down from a high of 71-in-100, which persisted from Sept. Trump maintains a 10-point lead among White voters, while trailing Biden. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 804: A: July 14-25. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 3 percent to 41. Now, for your. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 154 RV. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 45. 5 GOP (R) +2. On average, across those 21 election cycles, our generic-ballot polling average on Election Day missed the House popular vote by only 3. 3. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. On Wednesday morning, another generic. Design and development by Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Holly Fuong, Christopher Groskopf, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Dhrumil Mehta, Jasmine Mithani, Mary Radcliffe, Anna Wiederkehr and Julia Wolfe. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 2 percent, respectively). 2024 Republican Debates. By Ashley. The results indicate. 47%. Aug. In that election, the GOP flipped control of the House with a. As recently as the 1970s, a voter’s preferences were only loosely moored to partisanship. Download. 9 . This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. President: Republican primary, New Hampshire, 2024. Download the data. Read More ABC News Photo Illustration, Getty - FrankRamspott The 2023 elections were a victory for liberal governance. Governor, Kentucky, 2023. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Specifically, we looked at what would happen if you made a forecast based solely on the partisan lean of a state or district, plus generic-ballot results. Republicans (R) July October 2020 April July October 38 40 42. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 2-point edge on the generic ballot. Biden. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. RealClearPolitics - 2024 Generic Congressional Vote. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download. On Election Day the red wave crashed ashore, with the GOP recording. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. ' 2022 Congressional elections, generic ballot polling provides a look at the overall political environment. Most recent cycle. Bluegrass Freedom Action (PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. The U. Election 2024 Polls; Generic Congressional Ballot; Senate Polls; State of the Union Polls; RCP Election 2024. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Trump. The reality of the generic ballot is that Democrats generally need to be ahead by a few points to have a status-quo election. 02. 6 percent to 43. Download the data. 8, 2022 leader Kelly Kelly +1. 5. The next step after Colorado's high court would be the. 538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. RacetotheWH is tracking the latest polls for the 2024 Senate Election. The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans Sep 13, 2023. The House polls are consistent with the generic ballot results. 45. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Our average gave Democrats an 8. Today, 538 is also happy to release our live-updating average of polls of the national generic congressional ballot, which ask Americans which party they intend to. Download the data. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 1380 RV. 2018 Generic Congressional Vote. Download. 8 percent). There is no shortage of people running for president in 2024. SIOUX CITY, Iowa -- The wife of a northwestern Iowa county supervisor was convicted Tuesday of a scheme to stuff the ballot box in her husband’s unsuccessful race for. 42. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead Republicans by 2. 2000. Final Lite version of FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate and gubernatorial forecasts as of Nov. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. A week ago, Republicans led Democrats by 1. 7 points behind Mr. But most of them are. Generic ballot. This 3-part map lets you view the current. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. General Election: Trump vs. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. New Hampshire 1st District - Leavitt vs. The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans Sep 13, 2023; 2024 Election. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download the data. 2 percent to 41. President: Republican primary, Iowa, 2024. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 19, 2020. 48. Wednesday’s poll also showed Democrats leading generic down-ballot races 47% to 42% with Trump at the top of the. 4 points. Download the data. 57. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The 2023 elections were a victory for liberal governance. Few House seats look more appealing for Democrats to flip than Arizona's 1st District in 2024. 13 to Sept. fit different models to predict the election outcome from generic ballot polls taken 300 days before the election, 240 days before the election, 180 days before the. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Democrats now enjoy a small but notable lead over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot with less than three months before crucial midterm elections, according to. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. +5. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Canada is looking to restore ties with President Nicolás Maduro ’s socialist government in Venezuela, falling in line with other. Classic. In 2010, the Republican turnout advantage amounted to the equivalent of 6 percentage points, meaning a tie on the generic ballot among registered voters translated into a six-point Republican lead. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% Trump DeSantis Haley Ramaswamy Nov. Here in 2018. Nov. For the 18 midterm elections that have taken place since 1946, I compared the final generic-ballot polling of the cycle by Gallup or the final polling average from RealClearPoliticsGallup surveys. Download. Download the data. The data point for 2014 reflects this year’s generic congressional ballot, a poll-based projection of the national House vote. Download the data. For instance, if Democrats have gained a net of 5 percentage points on the generic ballot since a certain district was polled, the model will adjust the poll upward toward the Democratic candidate. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download the data. 3 percentage points (43. 6 . Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Generic Ballot – FiveThirtyEight All posts tagged “Generic Ballot” Mar. Download. 59. 49. Split Ticket’s calculations showed an R+1. 6%, Biden at 45% — in the RCP polling average. The 538 running average of the generic ballot puts Democrats at 46% to Republicans 45%. , polls that ask people whether they intend to vote for a Democrat or for a Republican for Congress. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download the data. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. The 2023 elections were a victory for liberal governance. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 6 percent to 43. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Biden EPIC-MRA. On average, Democrats trailed by. Trump. 2-point advantage in the national generic ballot, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. RCP Poll Average. 47%. At least 15 congressional races already feature a challenger who faced the current incumbent on the general election ballot in 2022. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. With election day approaching, two gubernatorial elections remain to be held before the 2024 general election. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Trump. WPA Intelligence. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. November 16, 2023, 7:48 AM 2:10 What the Democrats’ wins could mean for 2024 After a disappointing election night for Republicans, what does th. S. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 8 percent). 2020. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. His predecessor Donald Trump, a member. According to the RealClearPolitics average, the shift began a month earlier. Club for Growth Action (super PAC) Club for Growth Action (super PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. Trends in 2024 Types of ballot measures. Support for both parties has risen since January 20. Six pollsters 1 have released generic ballot polls both before and after the Dobbs decision. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, 3 Democrats currently lead by 0. SCOTUS Congress Facts First 2024 Elections. 1 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 52. 2018 Generic Congressional Vote. ”. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Republicans (R) +2. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 2. 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination: Trafalgar Group (R) Trump 50, DeSantis 13, Haley 15, Ramaswamy 4, Christie 5, Scott 4, Burgum 3, Hutchinson 0: Trump +35: 2024 Republican Presidential. As you can see, the president’s party lost. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 8 percentage points, is too aggressive and will usually. S. 46%. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 0. S. S. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download the data. The Immigration Hub is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Democrats (D) +7. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. RENO, Nev. 47%. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. At the end of a loooooong campaign, here’s where we stand: Joe Biden is. A week ago, Republicans led Democrats by 2. The average. e. com. References Presidential Approval Tracker / 2024 Republican Presidential Primary Polls / 2024 Presidential Candidate Favorability Trackers The Details Almost sin…All 2018 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. 3-5. Notice any. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Jacobson is a senior correspondent with PolitiFact and senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2024. The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. . In testing this. 1 Sept. YouGov. ABCNews. Download the data. Club for Growth (PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. m. Emerson. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Republicans (R) +2. Download the data.